The Present Future: The Singularity is Coming

I read a really interesting article in the NYTimes about the Singularity University and its creator, Ray Kurzweil. I've always been completely fascinated with the idea of Singularity, and the increasingly closer future. That's why this article - in the NY TIMES no less- is important. These ideas are more mainstream than ever, the most important people in power are paying attention, the most important people in industry want to know what it takes to get there. And why? because the technology we're now looking at is at the cusp of conquering death, fear, famine, poverty, and illness.

The Singularity

The singularity is an event in time when the rate of technological development is so fast that it ushers an age in which the future is completely indeterminable in any qualitative sense. This technology will likely merge man and machine, which is the next step in our evolution. We're moving from biology to technology. When I look at the past 14 billion years in context, it makes total sense to me.

One of the most important things to take away from Ray Kurzweil and other futurists is that technological development is increasing at an accelerated rate. Remember, your brain thinks linearly, but technology progresses exponentially. That means the future is always closer than you think it is and the past is always further away than you remember it.

I'm quite glad that the Times is writing about the Singularity University because it means more and more people will be reading about the future as presented by thinkers who are quite optimistic. In contrast, most people think about the technological future in terms of 1984, Brave New World or others.

Literature and the Future

Science fiction is a fun way to explore what happens when technology meets politics/power/society and play it out. Brave New World by Aldous Huxley and 1984 by George Orwell did it the classic way, and from a soft sci-fi perspective The Handmaid's Tale by Margaret Atwood also does it. The book describes a future-dystopia where religion, underpopulation and the subjugation of women meet. I like it because it adds to the male dominated sci-fi world a beneficial feminist perspective on the future.

The problem with looking at technology through fiction is that you invariably encounter the pessimistic view of the future, because conflict makes a story compelling - oh look at how humans have created the big evil computer/robot/death-ray, if only they learned to love each other and live in harmony with the forest/eachother/blue-skinned-natives, blah blah blah - that's how they go.

But have we really created the big bad evil out of technology? Look at infrastructurally poor parts of Africa, no roads, no government, but full and complete cell phone access (the sahara, sudan etc) these technologies liberate trapped peoples. There are other examples, you get the idea.

Freedom, Technology and Energy

Technology democratizes information distribution (you don't have to pay vast amounts of money to learn - tutorials exist, information is published online and wikipedia is generally a good start point. Technology democratizes content creation - you don't need much money to be an artist, writer or videographer - hardware is incredibly cheap and there is invariably an open source or free (as in beer) software available to you. You don't even need to pay for an operating system if you're willing to be a little bit daring.

Obviously not all technology is beneficial and can be quite destructive. Take a look at the latest mining technology. It removes mountains. In fact, improved resource extraction technology can cause extreme damage to the environment, not just level mountains, but disrupt eco-systems and create chain events that are unperceived until it is too late. Oh hello iceberg!

Unfortunately, energy is the crux of modernity. Energy availability determines lifespans, it determines health, it determines productivity. Total availability of the stuff is not only necessary, I think its a moral imperative. So we're left in a tough spot. So far, despite the issues of mineral extraction, resources like natural gas, nuclear power and solar power have become increasingly viable. Natural gas is significant because it has 1/4th the carbon atoms per molecule than oil. Nuclear technology has become safer per dollar paid thanks to better handling techniques. And solar power cells now work at night! I hope we take it further and will develop products that provide energy to areas with no infrastructure.

We gotta get on that. Portable energy. Solar powered backpacks that don't just charge your laptop, but power it while you use it. Can't build roads? fuggedaboudit! We got solar powered planes that land vertically. You get the idea.